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In this post, we will check out the NBA stats that can help you win.
Betting on the NBA is a popular option among sports bettors. But there is a lot more to it than knowing NBA betting odds and watching a few trends. The good news is that there are a few helpful stats that can give you an edge.
The numbers are the most important part of betting on the NBA. Using these NBA stats, you can gain an edge over the rest of the competition and put yourself in the best position to win while betting on the NBA.
Possessions per game
While it can be easy to focus on things like points per game, that doesn’t tell the whole story. More importantly, that average may not mean a whole lot if the team doesn’t have the ball very often. For that reason, if you are going to be betting on the NBA, check out the stats possessions per game.
This is a crucial metric, particularly if you enjoy betting on the over/under. The possessions per game indicate the kind of pace that a team plays at. For instance, in 2021-22, the Minnesota Timberwolves went 50-32 on the over because they had the most possessions per game.
Last year, four of the top five teams in this metric wound up making money on the over. It isn’t 100% guaranteeing a winner but there’s a pretty good chance that possessions per game will lead you to a winner.
Average scoring margin
Again, a stat that can be a bit misleading but it gives a general idea of how well a team is playing throughout the year. The teams that find themselves at the bottom of this category are there because they are often on the receiving end of a whooping. Teams at the top end tend to produce winning bets on the spread more often than not.
This metric is not so much about identifying the best teams but pinpointing the worst. Betting against the teams that are in the bottom half of this metric will give you a matchup advantage when making predictions.
More often than not, you should win by simply betting against the teams at the bottom of the average scoring margin list.
Effective field goal percentage
While it can be easy to look at things like points per game, there is more to the story. Finding the teams that have a high field goal percentage is important but you can take it to another level. The effective field goal percentage, known as eFG%, puts an emphasis on three-point attempts.
The league itself is becoming a league from deep, so this stat puts importance on the three. It isn’t a totally common stat but it can give an indication as to which teams are better from the three-point line. Those teams are more likely to have higher totals, helping you bet the over in certain situations.
Points scored in the paint
Those who watch the NBA regularly recognize that a team who can’t score in the paint struggles. While the game has shifted to the three-point line in terms of importance, don’t overlook how well teams who can score in the paint do against the spread.
For instance, during the 2021-22 season, Memphis was first in the league at points per game in the paint. Unsurprisingly, they also covered 64.2% of their games, going 52-29-1.
Compare points in the paint against a team’s defense but this is a great start when trying to predict which teams will cover the spread with some regularity. These are the kind of stats that can make a real difference over the long term.
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